LATEST NEWS: UPDATE 1/30/10: From May '09 through January '10, 9,414 homes were listed, and 5,440 were sold, or 57%. Longer period of time than below (almost 3 quarters compared to one), but the time period shows a picture of increased sales for listings. The average sale price did increase dramatically to $221,000...which shows that higher end homes are starting to move again. Hooray! Great news, but tempered with the still struggling market, especially when we are possibly looking at a drop off after the tax credits go away in April. Average overall days on the market are 79, again a small improvement, but for certain price points (above $200K) that increases to 100 days or more. Still, I feel better, hope you do too! One thing to remember: the stats for homes sold by owner are much less promising. This is not the time to try it yourself, contrary to my feeling in 2006- mid 2007. Call me to discuss the $1000 flat fee listing, or for the traditional percentage listing. I get homes sold! UPDATE 4/7/09: The latest market statistics for January - March show that in 2009, 3,800 homes were listed, and of those 1,100 were sold, or 30%. Last year, 40% of the listed properties sold. The average sale price has gone from $208,400 to $198,800. Of those listed, over 33% expired (last year only 24% expired). A couple of bright spots: Over 1,000 less homes were listed this year than last (less competition) and buyers are starting to realize that low interest rates (now in the 5% range), and the FREE money from the government ($8,000 for 1st Time Homebuyers, contact me for details) are in their favor. UPDATE 10/1/08: Prices in the Capital Region did slowly come down in some areas over the last 2 years (especially in the higher price range). However, the market over the last 6 months is not budging. Prices are stable, homes are selling in 100 days and well-priced homes are selling in a day with multiple bidders (I know because I've had a couple). While we're not in any kind of boom (it will be a while before that happens again), the Capital Region continues to be a market where you can comfortably buy the home you want, provided it matches your price range, and expect that you made the right decision. UPDATE 9/23/08: Well, the great American Bailout has begun. While this may be a long-term problem for taxpayers, in the short term the Real Estate market should benefit. With banks and lenders wiping the sweat from their brows, the home-buying public will have a bit more willing partner for financing. Rates have come down quite a bit and property values are low (and negotiating), as I always say...don't wait for the bottom, by the time you find it...it's gone. ATTN BUYERS: With the continuing challenges facing Freddie Mac and Fanny Mae, the mortgage lending atmosphere may tighten up even more. The average rate is over 9% historically, we are still at around a prevailing 6.5% rate. While nothing is certain (even pessimistic projections can be way off base), with Senator Schumer continuing to cause mass runs on banks and the big 2 in trouble it may be a good idea to lock in a rate for a new home. UPDATE 6/24/08: With the arrival of Summer and the end of the school year, we're starting to see an uptick in activity for certain priced homes, the average sold home is in the $230,000 range. While many buyers are taking their time, homes that are at a value are being sold quickly. So, the good news is that a home will sell when it is listed for the right price...the problem is knowing what that price will be. The best way to gauge the market is to watch the comparables as they are listed, reduced in price or sold. Aggressive pricing is the key, with staging and realistic expectations as the door to a successful sale. Get them in, turn them on and negotiate the offer. One thing to remember: any "red flags" in the home (water stains, un-grounded outlets, cracked windows etc) need to be fixed before buyers enter. Don't give them the opportunity to question your maintenance, buyers don't want a "honey-do" list as soon as they buy the home. UPDATE 3/12/08: With the continued bad news on the national scene, gas prices and Eliot Spitzer's mess, buyers have been sitting for a bit. However, the up & down Dow and consumers getting acclimated to different times are adding up to an evening out of the uncertainty. The media has been crying RECESSION for months now, the boom has busted, stocks are not on a prolonged up or down trend, and people are tiring of the political races which seem to have been going on for years. If we stay on an even path for a while, real estate prices will tend to take the path of least resistance, which history very clearly demonstrates means up. UPDATE 10/17/07: While checking out the market in Southern Saratoga (April - Oct 07 vs October 06 - April 07), I noticed that while there are more listings on the market, the median price has gone up $2,000 and % of sold to listed has increased slightly. Days on the market have also gotten somewhat shorter, from 84 to now 79. This doesn't mean we're out of the slide, but it does show that the southern Saratoga market has gotten slightly more vibrant the last 6 months. UPDATE 9/18/07: Well, the Fed has lowered the interest rate 1/2 a point (to 4.75%) to stimulate the housing market. The idea is that banks will be able to lower their interest rates on new mortgages. Good news for both buyers and sellers, but short term impact should be felt by buyers first. With lower rates, they are saving money while still able to negotiate a good deal with plenty of inventory to choose from. So the question continues to be: will housing prices continue to go down, or will buyers taking advantage of lower interest rates re-balance the inventory...lowering the days on market? REMEMBER THIS: By the time you know we've reached the bottom of real estate prices, it's already passed you by. UPDATE 9/10/07: Our new Governor, Eliot Spitzer, is not doing so well. Update October '08: Eliot who? UPDATE DECEMBER '06: Perception is reality. Most economic data suggests that the buyer's market we are now in is not due to the historic reasons for a housing slowdown; recessions, layoffs, unemployment and high interest rates. Right now, unemployment is at a statistical zero, interest rates are still low, the stock market is at historic highs and commercial construction is still on the uprise. What does this mean? Buyers have dropped out in droves due to perception. When faced with "bad" economic news on a daily basis in the Albany Times Union, New York Times and most other major press and broadcast news, they have been bombarded with alarmist reports of a crash which has been created in an atmosphere of political football. During the multi-year boom, housing prices were growing at a rapid pace due to speculation of a continuing increase, and buyers were competing over a listing like the last Elmo doll at the toy store. In the Capital Region, the first signs of a housing bust began back in June of this year. The bust had all the hallmarks of a much-needed correction, sellers had been pricing their homes as high as 20% over the last comparable in their neighborhood and were getting multiple offers over asking price. This frenzy had to end, and end it did in June when suddenly more homes were on the market (sellers trying to catch the wave?) than buyers. As the days-on-market began to increase, buyers sensed the correction and wisely sat it out to wait for the "right" home as opposed to any that was available. The transition was relatively swift. By July, we saw available inventory increase rapidly, while property sales dropped just as fast. The correction was underway. As we approach the winter (typically the worst selling season), sellers who listed in the late summer are getting incredibly motivated to move before winter arrives. They have had to reduce prices for weeks, and are now faced with homes to sell before the winter doldrums. Now is the time for savvy buyers to dust off their walking boots and hit the streets for the "right" house, armed with good rates, the time to search and the ability to negotiate. In my opinion (and in the mind of most economists), the housing price drop will not continue for much longer if the economy does not change. While a correction was necessary, and the feeding frenzy had to end, housing prices are now within buyers' reaches and are not inflated by speculation. If a buyer waits until spring, they may be faced with more competition, fewer homes on the market, and sellers who have all spring and summer to sell their home. Take advantage of this window, for it may not last. UPDATE 5/30/07: It Didn't. Home prices in the Capital Region have stopped their precipitous fall, and are now slightly up since winter. While we're not seeing multi-bids above list price, houses are selling at a good clip, sellers are pricing reasonably and buyers are feeling like this is a good time to buy (never try to time the market exactly!). |